Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a severe fluctuation, with the XRP price rapidly falling from $3.05 to $2.85, a single-day decline of over 6%, attracting widespread attention in the market.

This price fluctuation is mainly influenced by three factors:

First, the lawsuit between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not yet been resolved. If Ripple loses the lawsuit, XRP may face the risk of being delisted from U.S. exchanges. This uncertainty has led some institutional investors to choose to sell off, resulting in over $300 million in large transactions on the chain.

Secondly, the approval of the XRP ETF, which was originally scheduled for August, has been postponed to September. Applications from institutions like ProShares have encountered obstacles, leading to a significant decrease in market inflow, and investor confidence has been impacted.

Finally, the global macroeconomic situation has also had a negative impact on the encryption currency market. The United States has imposed tariffs on Brazil and India, combined with a significant adjustment in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, resulting in a decrease in investors' risk appetite. Bitcoin ETF saw nearly $200 million in outflows in a single day, and the entire encryption currency market is generally under pressure.

From a technical analysis perspective, the XRP price has fallen below the lower boundary of the 2.85-3.05 USD consolidation range, creating a "false breakout" trap. The MACD indicator has shown a death cross and has crossed below the zero line, while the RSI has fallen into the oversold zone, but no divergence signals have yet appeared, indicating that there may still be downward pressure in the short term.

Despite the challenges XRP faces in the short term, its fundamentals remain solid in the long term. Ripple's cross-border payment network RippleNet continues to expand its global reach, and ecosystem collaborations are deepening. If the SEC's lawsuit is ultimately resolved in favor of Ripple, the price of XRP is expected to break through the resistance level of $4, and could even reach levels of $6-8.

For investors, a cautious attitude should be maintained in the short term, closely monitoring the support level at 2.85 dollars. If the price falls below this level, the next support level may be around 2.6 dollars. If the price can rebound and regain the 3 dollars level, small-scale positions can be considered. Long-term investors can patiently wait for the final outcome of the SEC lawsuit; if favorable news arises, XRP may welcome a dual benefit from policies and funding.

The volatility of the cryptocurrency market has always been one of its characteristics, and this significant turbulence of XRP has once again confirmed this. However, for steadfast supporters, such fluctuations may be seen as an opportunity for long-term investment. With the gradual clarification of the regulatory environment and the increased participation of institutional investors, the future development of XRP and the entire cryptocurrency market remains promising.