Apple headset, cold outside and hot inside

Source: Digital Intelligence Frontline, Author: Zhou Luping, Editor: Zhao Yanqiu

Image source: Generated by Unbounded AI tool

The Vision Pro, which sells for up to 25,000 yuan, is Apple's first new hardware product since the Apple Watch was released in 2015. The entire XR track is very excited. Cook said today marks the beginning of a new era in computing.

However, a not-so-good signal is that the Vision Pro will not be released until next year, which was a rare occurrence in the past, indicating that Apple is not yet fully ready.

Apple's developer conference has not been this lively in a long time.

Although various OS operating systems and new MacBooks were also updated that day, everyone was aiming at Apple's new hardware device MR (Mixed Reality). At around 2 am on June 6th, Beijing time, the long-awaited MR headset Apple Vision Pro finally made its debut at the finale of the press conference**, although the key information had already been spoiled before that.

However, Vision Pro, as Apple's first brand-new hardware product since the release of Apple Watch in 2015, is even called "the next epoch-making product in the next ten years" by Cook. Such a high tone has whetted people's appetites at a time when consumer electronics innovation is weak.

After the release of the product, many people are cheering, thinking that this is the "iPhone moment" in the XR field (collectively referred to as AR, VR and MR), which will bring revolutionary changes to this new track, including people in the industry who are generally excited, Apple will play a role that other companies cannot match in terms of industry innovation and ecological maturity.

But some people have doubts, because this is not a very mature product, and there are too many problems to be solved. Behind Apple’s late arrival, it seems more like a last resort**.

What are the highlights of the 25,000 yuan headset

After the audience waited for more than an hour, Cook finally took out the heaviest product of the day.

This thing that looks like ski goggles is a spatial computing device worn on the head. Unlike the two-dimensional screens we all come into contact with every day, it can switch between augmented reality and virtual reality with a dial. It does not have our common handles, and the way of interaction is eyes, hands and voice. For example, you can pinch your fingers to select something or flick up to scroll through the window, "the whole world in front of you becomes the canvas of the App."

Apple demonstrated to the outside world a number of scenarios combining the real world and the virtual world. Things like the Safari window, Messages, and Apple Music windows are all there, all hovering over the table in the real world. Even if a colleague comes to pass the item, it will not be affected.

When people wear this device to communicate with others, it will display your eyes through a system called EyeSight, and the camera inside the device will capture facial expressions and display them on an external screen, and the other party can follow the content displayed on the screen to judge your status. And if you're using it immersively, like watching a movie, the glowing screen hides the eyes.

Vision Pro can be connected with Apple computers and other devices, and present the content and applications on these devices in the headset. And it can also be connected with some of Apple's existing apps. For example, when using FaceTime calls, Vision Pro can use machine learning technology to create a real user image-reflecting facial and hand movements in real time. Users can do things together, like watch a movie, browse photos, or collaborate on a presentation.

The entire body of Vision Pro includes 12 cameras, 5 sensors, and two 4K Micro OLED displays. Apple uses two chips on this device, one is the M2 used in other Apple devices, and the other is the R1 chip specially made for AR. **The R1 chip is mainly responsible for transmission. The official said that the transmission data can be reached within 12 milliseconds, which is faster than the blink of an eye. **In addition, the headset uses a new operating system, VisionOS, with a dedicated app store.

For people who wear glasses, Apple and Zeiss have customized optical inserts, which can be magnetically attached to the lenses to meet the needs of people such as myopia.

Battery life is a big issue, though. The Vision Pro does not have a battery itself, but is powered by an external battery that fits in your pocket. So, when you wear it on your head, there will be a cable on the back to connect to the battery in your pocket, and the battery life can reach 2 hours.

In addition to battery life, the price of this product is higher than previous market expectations, as high as $3,499, which is close to RMB 25,000. And there is no stock, Vision Pro will not be released in the US market until early next year, and users in other countries and regions will have to buy it later.

Exciting XR Entrepreneurship Circle

"It is undoubtedly an engineering miracle", "The development of the XR industry can finally enter a new stage"...

After the release of Vision Pro, domestic XR (collectively referred to as AR, VR and MR) entrepreneurs were extremely excited. Data Intelligence Frontline learned that although Apple’s press conference was early in the morning in China, almost all members of many entrepreneurial teams in the XR field in China watched it.

Everyone has been waiting for too long. It has been six or seven years since Apple revealed that it is developing XR devices, and the product release time has also been postponed amid speculation.

And the performance of existing players is not satisfactory. Whether it is Meta overseas or ByteDance domestically, although they have invested a lot of money, the products have not been accepted by the public, and the XR track has not matured. The XR track has shown a cooling trend in the past two years. Many major manufacturers are withdrawing, and the number and scale of financing are also decreasing. Everyone urgently needs players like Apple who have appeal in the global consumer market and supply chain to enter.

The pool of water in the XR is already being stirred by Apple. Meta, which was originally released in the autumn, rushed to release the new VR product Quest3 without stopping before Apple released new products. OPPO also released a MR headset at the end of May, which OPPO regards as the next intelligent computing platform after smartphones.

"Single eye has reached 4K, which is unprecedented." Emviron CEO Shi Qing told DataSmart Frontline, Apple has achieved ultra-thin design in terms of optics and display, which are industry-leading. Although there have been many spoilers before, the press conference still brought surprises to many people.

"Apple will pull the entire supply chain to develop towards their plan, which will also bring living space for surrounding companies." Shi Qing said, he will snap up the products as soon as they are released. Not surprisingly, Apple's first batch of machines are likely to be snapped up by insiders, including the supply chain and enthusiasts. At present, Eland has been cultivating in the XR track for 8 years, and has made some preparations, hoping to meet this development opportunity.

Duan Jiaxi, the co-founder of Naidejia, told Data Intelligence Frontline that Apple has a strong ability to define products. When an industry is still groping, the launch of Apple products will have a directional drive for the entire industry. "The entire industry will soon target Apple to make its first-generation and second-generation products. It may be possible to achieve the third-generation to align with Apple's first-generation products." Shi Qing said.

The second is to drive the maturity of the supply chain. The entrepreneurial team has little say in the supply chain, but a strong Apple can drive the maturity of the core supply chain, which will also benefit the entire industry. For example, on the XR chip, Qualcomm is basically used at present. There have been a few sporadic companies in China that have launched XR chips before, but the performance and development tools are not enough, and they have gradually withdrawn.

"This is not a product issue, but an industry chain issue." An entrepreneur in the XR field said, "We hope that this time Apple will drive the industry chain to make a leap, and finally move towards true human-machine integration." stage."

The third is to develop consumer habits. After all, it is not easy for people to accept XR devices to be worn on users' heads, but **Apple has a large number of loyal users and a good reputation, which can quickly cultivate user habits. **

"It is still far away from becoming the next computing platform." Duan Jiaxi said frankly. Shi Qing also believes that things made by Apple usually go through two to three generations of iterations before they really become popular. The iPhone and Apple Watch both went through this stage.

"Don't expect Apple to make a product similar to the iPhone right away." The above-mentioned entrepreneur said, but the development of any industry is the continuous accumulation of micro-innovations, and finally forms a breakthrough in the entire industry chain. He sees the Vision Pro as more of an iPod moment now.

Questions have not stopped

Although the outside world has high expectations for Apple's new hardware products, many people still believe that the launch of Vision Pro will not have the kind of sensation that Jobs released the iPhone.

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said bluntly that compared with AI, investors are obviously less interested in Apple AR/MR headsets, which may still be difficult to make significant revenue and profit contributions to suppliers in the next two years. "Investors pay more attention to when Apple will launch a service similar to ChatGPT recently than Apple AR/MR headsets."

In some people's eyes, Apple's move this time is even a bit risky. AR/VR optics expert Karl Guttag believes that Apple's development of AR/VR headsets is more like worrying about missing out on new technology trends. Looking back at some key AR products in the past, from Google Glass, Magic Leap, and HoloLens, although a lot of research and development costs have been invested, the market has not given the expected feedback.

There were even reports that not all Apple executives agreed to hold the event. But Apple has waited too long on this matter and has been criticized for a long time. It can only launch AR/VR technologies that have not been completely perfected, because it needs to see how these technologies perform in the real world, and how developers and consumers respond to them. Reaction. "I think Apple has been on the sidelines for too long," Abovitz said. "At some point, they have to get involved themselves."

Duan Jiaxi told Data Intelligence that when Apple first started the XR project, it wanted to make AR glasses and become the next-generation computing platform after the mobile phone. But AR glasses are not yet mature, so Apple had to make an MR headset first.

Judging from the existing products and production capacity, this product will not be as popular as Apple's other products:

One is the high price of $3,500, which directly shuts out a large number of people, and the people who buy it will be more developers and some enthusiasts who want to try early adopters. Duan Jiaxi believes that Apple's first batch of devices may be more oriented to the development team, allowing them to launch more applications on it.

The second is that the mass production capacity of this product is very limited, and the complex process and low production rate make the follow-up delivery a big problem. Apple was producing 100 headsets a day in the early stages of development, but only 20 made it to the mark. It was previously reported that Apple's target has dropped to 250,000 units. But it will not be easy to achieve this goal. This means that even if many users want to buy it, Apple cannot produce it.

Furthermore, the MR market is still immature in the short term. Although the Pancake optical solution has made VR devices much thinner and lighter, and the display light source has also transitioned from LCD to OLED, the refresh rate and afterimage have been significantly improved. VST perspective makes it possible for VR devices to realize MR mode. "These are quite powerful breakthroughs." .

But Apple is facing a market that is far from mature. Whether it is Microsoft, Google or Meta, they have worked on this track for many years and invested heavily, but none of them have achieved the expected success. Google Glass launched in 2012, and while it looked pretty cool at the time, it had very limited functionality, short battery life, and was discontinued. In 2016, Microsoft launched the AR headset HoloLens, focusing on the To B market, but this product also encountered huge problems. From time to time, news that Microsoft will cut this project came out in the market.

Michael Gartenberg, a former executive who was in charge of Apple's marketing work, also said that Apple's launch of head-mounted display devices is extremely risky. The most important reason is that similar products launched by competitors have no market, and even Microsoft's products have no market. Sales were mediocre.

There are still many problems that AR/VR needs to solve, including large computing chips, heat dissipation, weight, battery life, screen refresh rate, eye tracking, etc. Zuckerberg once said: "The most difficult technological challenge of our time may be to fit a supercomputer into an ordinary-looking eyeglass frame. It is difficult, but it is the combination of our physical world and the digital world. key."

Moreover, the C-end has relatively high requirements for products, which must be light, stylish, and rich in ecology. Only when these conditions are met, many users are willing to try. Unlike the B-side, as long as one requirement is met, there may be manufacturers paying for it.

Although Apple's optical and display solutions have reached the highest level in the industry, these points are far from enough for discerning consumers. For example, in addition to optics, how to lower the latency of VST, how to make users feel no dizziness, and how to interact with corresponding content in a closed environment are all difficulties in the industry.

No one will doubt the strength of Apple. In fact, the effect displayed by Vision Pro has surprised many people. Moreover, Apple has supply chain integration capabilities and content ecology that are completely unmatched by other companies. As early as 2015, Apple acquired Metaio, a German company engaged in AR application production tools, and later released ARkit, which brought more than 14,000 AR applications to Apple and trained a large number of AR developers. Later, Apple successively acquired startups in the XR field.

When Apple launched the smart watch Apple Watch and the wireless headset AirPods, it also faced numerous doubts, but Apple eventually proved its vision. Among them, the sales volume of each generation of Apple Watch is tens of millions, while the sales volume of AirPods exceeds 100 million units, which has led to the rise of a new electronic category.

But these products are all original needs in reality, and XR is a brand new track, and no manufacturer has really succeeded here. A not-so-good signal is that after Apple releases a new product, it usually ships in large quantities within a month, but Vision Pro will not be released until next year, which was rarely the case before, which shows that Apple Not quite ready yet.

Still, Cook seemed confident, "Today marks the beginning of a new era in computing."