#美国经济数据# Looking back at the market experiences over the years, every time before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting, one can't help but marvel at the cycle of history. Currently, with the release of US economic data, the ADP and GDP figures have sparked widespread follow. During the subprime mortgage crisis, we also frequently monitored the fluctuations of these numbers. Now it appears that the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September has risen to 37.9%, indicating that market expectations are subtly changing. The statements from the US Treasury Secretary are also noteworthy; he mentioned the Fed's mistakes regarding tariff inflation and called for the Fed to have "a little imagination." This reminds me of the debates about Fed policies during the 2008 financial crisis. History is always remarkably similar; today's situation is so reminiscent of those times. It remains to be seen whether the Fed can learn lessons this time and be more prudent in policy-making. For us investors, the key is to discern the long-term trends behind these subtle changes and prepare for a new economic cycle.