2025 Digital Mining Industry Development Report

A recent industry report conducted an in-depth investigation into the Bitcoin Mining industry, covering nearly half of the total computing power of the Bitcoin network. The report shows that Bitcoin Mining has evolved into a capital-intensive data center business focused on energy. The industry exhibits several new characteristics: rapid efficiency improvements of Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC), significant inflows of institutional capital, and an increasingly green energy structure.

Main Findings

1. Scale and Growth: The cumulative electricity consumption of the industry will reach 138 terawatt-hours in 2024. The energy consumption per unit of work decreases by 24%, down to 28.2 joules per terahash.

2. Decarbonization Process: Sustainable energy (, including renewable energy and nuclear power ), has met 52.4% of the Mining load. The annual greenhouse gas emissions amount to 39.8 million tons of CO2 equivalent, accounting for only about 0.08% of global emissions.

3. Geographic Distribution: The United States accounts for approximately 75% of the surveyed computing power. Paraguay, the UAE, Norway, and Bhutan have become secondary hubs.

4. Cost and Profit: The median cost of delivered electricity is $45 per megawatt-hour. Including all operating expenses, the average total cost is $55.5 per megawatt-hour. The rise in Bitcoin prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 has driven the industry's "hash power profit" to a historic high.

5. Risk Factors: Core concerns include rising energy prices, policy uncertainty, and the concentration of ASIC supply with the top three manufacturers holding over 99% market share (. Common mitigation measures include long-term power hedging, geographic diversification, and vertical energy ownership.

Industry Fundamentals

) Network Security and Economy

1. After the halving in 2024, the block subsidy will decrease from 6.25 bitcoins per block to 3.125 bitcoins. Although transaction fee revenue only accounts for an average of 6% of miners' income, during times of network congestion, transaction fees can exceed 100% of the subsidy.

2. Despite the halving of rewards, global hash rate still rose to 796 EH/s by the end of the year, reflecting the motivation for miners to reinvest.

3. The latest 5nm and 3nm ASIC chips consume less than 20 J/TH. A new generation of chips that are expected to double the efficiency is anticipated to be launched in 2025-2026.

( Capital Structure

About 41% of the global computing power is controlled by publicly listed miners, making a mixed debt and equity capital structure possible. The deleveraging after 2023 has reduced the net debt to EBITDA ratio of most major companies to below 0.5 times.

Environment and ESG Performance

• The proportion of sustainable energy reached 52.4%, an increase of 15 percentage points compared to the previous year.
• The carbon intensity is 288 grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 34% compared to 2021.
• Total greenhouse gas emissions are 39.8 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, a decrease of 21% compared to the 2021 model predictions.
• 70.8% of companies adopt various mitigation measures, such as renewable energy certificates, carbon offsets, waste heat reuse, etc.

It is expected that by 2027, the carbon intensity of the entire industry may drop below 200 grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour. Miners using over 50% low-carbon electricity enjoy a 50-150 basis points advantage in the debt market.

Operating Costs Analysis

Electricity cost quartile ) cents/kWh ###:

• Minimum 25%: ≤3.2 cents, almost profitable in any market
• 25%-50%: 3.2-4.5 cents, requires modern ASICs to remain competitive
• 50%-75%: 4.5-6.0 cents, profits are quickly compressed during halving or price drops
• Up to 25%: >6 cents, eliminated first in a bear market

ASIC efficiency quartiles ### J/TH (:

• Most efficient 25%: ≤25 J/TH, latest generation chip
• 25%-50%: 25-30 J/TH, 2023 equipment
• 50%-75%: 30-40 J/TH, 2021-2022 hardware, feasible only at low electricity prices
• Minimum efficiency 25%: >40 J/TH, old mining machines, profitable only at extremely low electricity prices

Overall, the cost of mining 1 Bitcoin is between $14,000 and $36,000. Low-cost operators can continue to "Mining and hold" during market downturns, while high-cost operators are the first to be forced to shut down when prices fall.

Risks and Regulation

Main risks include:

• The United States may introduce a federal energy consumption tax.
• Europe may introduce a carbon tax
• ASIC supply chain disruption
• The price of Bitcoin has been sluggish for a long time.

Response strategies include geographic diversification, signing long-term power purchase agreements, multi-channel procurement of equipment, and hedging against Bitcoin price risks.

Strategic Growth Directions

1. AI/HPC integration: Transforming mining facilities for AI training, potential revenue can reach $1.0-1.5 per kilowatt-hour.

2. Vertical energy integration: Collaborate with energy producers to reduce electricity costs to below 3 cents/kWh.

3. Green Bitcoin Premium: Sell "green" tokens at a 1-3% premium through the certification program.

Industry Outlook

• The expected enterprise value/EBITDA multiple for major miners in 2025 is 4.8-6.2 times.
• The price per hash is between 45 million to 70 million US dollars.

Catalysts to watch in the coming year include net inflows into ETFs, large-scale shipments of the new generation of ASICs, the U.S. FERC's decision on grid service revenues, and the EU's sustainability rules for the crypto asset market.

Investment Advice

• Increase the holdings of miners with vertical integration, low cost, high efficiency, and a high proportion of renewable energy.
• Neutral/Buy-focused custodial services or operators in a single jurisdiction.
• Reduce holdings/avoid miners with high leverage, high electricity prices, and low-efficiency equipment.