At the beginning of August, the financial markets faced new challenges. On Thursday, the U.S. stock market closed with a downward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.74%, the S&P 500 index dropping by 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite index slightly declining. Notably, tech giant Microsoft saw its stock price rise by 3.9%, but its market capitalization failed to break the $4 trillion mark.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has become the focus of the market. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market expects a 61.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in September, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 38.2%. Looking ahead to October, the probability of maintaining interest rates drops to 39.4%, with the cumulative probabilities of a 25 basis point and 50 basis point cut at 46.8% and 13.9%, respectively.

The Federal Reserve Chairman's tough stance seems to have dispelled market expectations for a rate cut in September. This statement has led to a rapid dissipating of previously accumulated optimism, significantly impacting the financial markets. The cryptocurrency market has not been spared either, experiencing a widespread fall, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices both seeing a swift decline.

This series of events once again highlights the high interconnectivity of global financial markets. Investors need to closely monitor various economic indicators and policy trends in order to make informed investment decisions in this uncertain market environment.