Institutions: The impact of global trade is quietly emerging, still overweight on emerging market stocks.

Jin10 data reported on July 29 that as the deadline for tariff increases approaches on August 1, the financial markets largely remain "blind" to the uncertainty of the tariffs, with most stock indices even reaching new highs. However, economists at Lombard Odier point out that a shock to global trade is quietly emerging. The 15% effective tariff in the United States is the highest level since the late 1930s. Predictions indicate that the evolving tariff landscape will lead to a significant slowdown in the global economy, although it is not enough to trigger a recession. While the current stock market volatility remains low, it is expected that volatility will gradually rise in the third quarter. In terms of asset allocation, the institution still favors emerging market stocks due to their lower valuations and more resilient profit growth.